Well I figured it would fall fast, especially on what looked to be an inevitable warning on profits (all the other 3-D printers had already done the same), but today's action surprised me. Decided to take profits. Glad I bought puts instead of shorting, lol. Total gain of 405%, even better than my silver trade. I'm looking for my next trade to be long (no way!) either S&P or an emerging market (have been beaten up pretty badly, should be good for a bounce...but then again, I may not for a while as the flood of money heading home may have just begun).
Wednesday, February 5, 2014
Monday, February 3, 2014
I'm back, baby!
Having taken a hiatus from trading to start a business (failed) and start a law practice (working out well so far), I decided to dip my toes back in to the pool. I've hesitated putting money at risk for a while, but when I saw DDD, I couldn't stop myself.
I like to bet on things falling, mostly because it's the opposite of what most other people are doing. It's my personal bias, and I try and control it as much as possible. DDD is an interesting company, but not at 200x P/E. Parabolic moves inevitably do the same thing the other way, and it becomes pretty easy to bet against. My most successful trade by far was shorting silver when it went parabolic in 2011. I made this move on 12/26/13, buying the May 17, 2014 put at $40 strike, avg. price of $0.377 per contract. In retrospect, I should have shorted the stock, but too late now...
As long as the broader market is in correction mode, I think the price will continue to plummet (10-15% correction). Near-term, I'm looking at around $60-ish. We'll see what the option price looks like at that point; I'm guessing around $0.70-ish.
I like to bet on things falling, mostly because it's the opposite of what most other people are doing. It's my personal bias, and I try and control it as much as possible. DDD is an interesting company, but not at 200x P/E. Parabolic moves inevitably do the same thing the other way, and it becomes pretty easy to bet against. My most successful trade by far was shorting silver when it went parabolic in 2011. I made this move on 12/26/13, buying the May 17, 2014 put at $40 strike, avg. price of $0.377 per contract. In retrospect, I should have shorted the stock, but too late now...
As long as the broader market is in correction mode, I think the price will continue to plummet (10-15% correction). Near-term, I'm looking at around $60-ish. We'll see what the option price looks like at that point; I'm guessing around $0.70-ish.
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