Now I'm staying in for the ride, and given the rumor-mill in Europe, the hopium the market is smoking with blinders on from euro-fatigue, I think it will be a ride. Bought EEV at 32.89.
The only thing that will keep Italy and Europe from imploding is a miracle. I don't believe in miracles. The ECB may have been able to save Italy by itself last week, but if they want to now, they will have to do a QE-like program and buy up trillions of bonds. What about Germany signing off on that? exactly. What about Italy reforms/austerity passing? good luck with that - if it happens, its going to be too little, too late. Probably.
And I'm not so sure Berlusconi's resignation will be as simple as the media is making it sound. Don't you think Berlusconi will at least be negotiating for immunity, if not to stay in power?
I'm not 100% comfortable shorting oil, though. While I think the probability of an Israeli strike is small, the severity of loss that a short-oil position would sustain makes it not worth the risk.
The only thing that will keep Italy and Europe from imploding is a miracle. I don't believe in miracles. The ECB may have been able to save Italy by itself last week, but if they want to now, they will have to do a QE-like program and buy up trillions of bonds. What about Germany signing off on that? exactly. What about Italy reforms/austerity passing? good luck with that - if it happens, its going to be too little, too late. Probably.
And I'm not so sure Berlusconi's resignation will be as simple as the media is making it sound. Don't you think Berlusconi will at least be negotiating for immunity, if not to stay in power?
I'm not 100% comfortable shorting oil, though. While I think the probability of an Israeli strike is small, the severity of loss that a short-oil position would sustain makes it not worth the risk.
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