Still Scurred

Copper is a little unpredictable right now, so I shorted another range-bound product, again using less leverage.

Short EUR/USD @ 133.21, closed at 132.76.  Gain of 5.7%.

Scurred

I wanted to short copper last night, but it kept falling so fast that I thought I had missed the boat...so I missed the boat.  Instead, I shorted something that hadn't fallen yet, and made a small fraction of the gain I would have made by shorting copper.  I still think we're going to see weaker than expected Chinese growth, which means lower copper; its just a matter of when to get in a short.  I still think there will be good opportunities for doing so.

Short QI (silver) at 32.20, closed at 31.85.  Gain of 4.7%

The market has gone full retard

Bernanke's speech today ignited market expectations for more QE, when in reality it appears he was only trying to tell the market that tightening is not on the table (accommodative monetary policy until end of 2014, when the Fed Funds futures were pricing it in before the end of 2013).  I'm always reluctant to move in front of a moving train, and I don't know how long the market is going to be in full-retard mode (where bad is good because it means more QE, and good is better because there won't be any monetary policy tightening anyways).  I'll update this post if I think there's a short opportunity tonight.

Update: Well, I made what would have been a money-making trade, but unfortunately, I put on too tight a stop. I almost perfectly called the top, lol.  Short HG @ 387.70, stopped at 390.25.  Loss of 10.8%.

Trade 5

China HSBC Flash PMI figures, particularly New Orders, came in well below expectations.

Short HG (copper) at 384.55

Update: To protect profits from a quick snap back, I put in a stop order at 382, which triggered.  I'll probably get back in soon, I think this has some room to run.  Gain of 16.2%.

Uh-oh

I wonder if Obama gave Bibi some bunker-busters?  http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/World/Story/STIStory_775677.html

Sunday at noon Eastern, the aircraft carrier Enterprise, aka CVN-65, left its home port of Naval Station Norfolk one final time for its final voyage with a heading: Arabian Sea, aka Iran. There, in a week, it will join CVN-72 Lincoln and CVN-70 Vinson (both heavy carriers), as well as LHD-8 Makin Island (light carrier and amphibious assault ship), all of which are supporting any potential escalation of "hostilities" in the Persian Gulf region.  Further accompanying the Enterprise is three Norfolk-based guided-missile destroyers  — the USS Porter, USS Nitze and USS James E. Williams.  (h/t Zerohedge)
http://www.wvec.com/my-city/norfolk/Deployment-day-for-USS-Enterprise--142243295.html

In one week, US forces+ in the Persian Gulf surrounding Iran will include:
CENTCOM HQ in Qatar + No. 83 Expeditionary Air Group RAF and the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing of the USAF
Support aircraft and heavy bombers from Diego Garcia
Airbases in Afghanistan
Other support bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
3 heavy aircraft carriers
1 light carrier/amphibious assault ship
3 guided missile destroyers

Amassing forces on an enemy border is almost always a prelude to war.

Trade 4

The initial elation to the news of Chinese inflation, and then Greek PSI going through went a bit far, so I shorted copper.  I didn't want to hold on to the trade too long, though, because I'm unsure of this morning's NFP.

Short HG @ 3.8225, closed at 3.8095.  Gain of 8.5%

Trade 3

The market's Pavlovian response to today's announcement that the Fed was considering sterilized QE is a bit silly.  As such I shorted, but got stopped out.  Bad place to get stopped.

Short ES @ 1349, stopped @ 1354.  Loss of 6.45%.

Reentered short ES at 1352.75.  Entered Short EUR/USD at 1.3148.  Will probably enter a short silver (maybe copper?) position today/tomorrow as a hedge against a strong NFP.