Short Jun '14 @ 1.3820
Lower German inflation gives ECB more ability to QE, which they were likely to do anyways, this just makes it easier. As will trouble from Ukraine, which is about as certain as anything can be.
Expectations for US jobs are pretty high, so there's room for disappointment...biggest risk to this trade. FOMC will likely be 'stay the course.'
Target is...I don't know. It depends on how long I want to hold this trade. I may take it for the initial leg down, then try it short it again after a rebound.
UPDATE: stopped out at 1.3820 after EU inflation numbers. I have no stomach to be the wrong way. Lack of conviction? On timing, I think so. EU inflation numbers won't push ECB to QE before AQR is done...but when will it be expected? I'm going to watch ADP numbers this morning...thinking AUD/USD may be closer.
UPDATE2: and so I did. Q1 GDP came in at .1%, far lower than expectations. Everything jumped on the news, but was overdone. Used moderate leverage to short AUD/USD on the snapback @ 92.48, covered at 92.34. Gain of 4.7%. Will be watching tonight's Aussie and Chinese data...
Lower German inflation gives ECB more ability to QE, which they were likely to do anyways, this just makes it easier. As will trouble from Ukraine, which is about as certain as anything can be.
Expectations for US jobs are pretty high, so there's room for disappointment...biggest risk to this trade. FOMC will likely be 'stay the course.'
Target is...I don't know. It depends on how long I want to hold this trade. I may take it for the initial leg down, then try it short it again after a rebound.
UPDATE: stopped out at 1.3820 after EU inflation numbers. I have no stomach to be the wrong way. Lack of conviction? On timing, I think so. EU inflation numbers won't push ECB to QE before AQR is done...but when will it be expected? I'm going to watch ADP numbers this morning...thinking AUD/USD may be closer.
UPDATE2: and so I did. Q1 GDP came in at .1%, far lower than expectations. Everything jumped on the news, but was overdone. Used moderate leverage to short AUD/USD on the snapback @ 92.48, covered at 92.34. Gain of 4.7%. Will be watching tonight's Aussie and Chinese data...
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