Saturday, May 14, 2011

Be careful with ETF's

I'm not sure what, but something is causing ZSL not to function as it was intended (e.g., as a leveraged inverse ETF, it should be up when the underlying is down; Thursday and Friday the correlation was off badly).  I exited this position on Thursday.  Sold ZSL @ 22.28 for a 25% gain.  I jumped back in the SLV Oct. Put @ 23 this time, and paid .78 per K.  It is still my view that as tightening takes place globally, and even in the U.S. with the end of QE2 (and QE Lite?), commodities and emerging markets are going to suffer, especially the biggest bubbles like silver.  Threats to this outlook include a lack of CB tightening, improving economic conditions, and a loss of confidence in cash or banks (this last one refers to the Euro crisis; I would expect gold to benefit, but its possible other PM's could as well).
The PSFI index again takes into account the unrealized loss on the STD put I'm holding.

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