Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Every. Single. Time.

You'd think I would let good judgment prevail over greed at least once.  Just once!  But again, I shortchanged myself.  Up as much as 200%+, I had to settle for a 50% gain.  Not bad, but the loss of that 150% stings.
Sold SLV Oct. '11 Put @ .56
The PSFI index reflects the gains here, but also the unrealized loss on the STD puts.
I thought the unwind would last a little longer, and frankly, I think it will have another downturn after QE2 ends, but we'll see.  Maybe I'll ride the wave down and buy some physical when QE3 rumors start?  Any way you look at it though, this has bubble/potential bubble written all over it.

So what now?  I'm still holding my STD puts because I think that's just a matter of time...I'm willing to gamble a little more.  Leverage in equities is nearing an all-time high, but net longs are at the lowest level in a while...still, things seem a little more fragile than they did a few months ago.  Maybe we have another 5% rise in the S&P, but over the next month or two, I would think we would see a real correction.  We'll see how the economic data turns out.

My "areas of opportunity" remain 1) patience, 2) common sense, or the application of it, and 3) waiting for better spots/stop gambling so much.

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