Today's LTRO was slightly higher than expected, and the effects of which are highly exaggerated in my opinion. These 3 year loans are not QE - while they help the liquidity situation, they have to be repaid. And banks still have to raise capital - raising debt is not sufficient.
But it wasn't all positive out of Europe. It looks like ISDA will consider (rightly so) Greece's subordination of all bonds not held be the ECB as a default, triggering CDS. Also, Portuguese 10 yields rose sharply today, to 13.75% from 13% yesterday (the ECB stated they were buying bonds on the short end today). Finally, tomorrow's Euro meeting will almost certainly decline to raise the ESM from 500 to 750 billion Euro.
I don't like day-trading, but that's all I'm comfortable doing right now. I'm too disconcerted with all the downside risks to go long, and I'm not sure the market is ripe for turning over/correcting just yet, so I don't want to be caught short in a BTFD market. Silver and Gold look interesting short prospects, though, but lets see what Bernanke says tomorrow...
Short ES @ 1364.75, closed at 1363.50. Gain of 1.25%.
But it wasn't all positive out of Europe. It looks like ISDA will consider (rightly so) Greece's subordination of all bonds not held be the ECB as a default, triggering CDS. Also, Portuguese 10 yields rose sharply today, to 13.75% from 13% yesterday (the ECB stated they were buying bonds on the short end today). Finally, tomorrow's Euro meeting will almost certainly decline to raise the ESM from 500 to 750 billion Euro.
I don't like day-trading, but that's all I'm comfortable doing right now. I'm too disconcerted with all the downside risks to go long, and I'm not sure the market is ripe for turning over/correcting just yet, so I don't want to be caught short in a BTFD market. Silver and Gold look interesting short prospects, though, but lets see what Bernanke says tomorrow...
Short ES @ 1364.75, closed at 1363.50. Gain of 1.25%.
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