Let's see where things stand...

If nothing else, I have an unlimited supply of pithy titles...
Silver.  If it was a quick snap-back, I would be unconcerned.  However, I'm worried that: 1) It's rise has been gradual, not impulsive; and 2) correlates highly with gold (greater swings, but pretty closely correlated).  I still think the end of QE2 will see silver lower, but whether I will make alot of money, or any at all, because of the time decay of the options I'm holding.  But, at this point, I'm unwilling to realize a loss at this point.
STD.  Same as silver, its just a question of when.  Did I get in too soon?  In retrospect, yes, but I did it at a time of stress and before key events.  Finland approved money for Portugal today, but its still up to Portugal to pass the austerity measures.  Plus, Greece is again on the verge of default.  We'll see, but again, I'm willing to gamble a little more here.
In the future, I look forward to using the futures market for my bets moreso than I do the equity/options market.

Paper

I'm a law-school student and I wrote a paper this semester on whether recklessness constitutes scienter under § 10(b) of the Exchange Act [securities fraud].  The short answer is that recklessness constitutes scienter because - while it is at best evidence of negligence - it is a strong indication of intent without the evidence to show it.  In other words, we can't prove you subjectively intended to do it; instead, we're going to look at the facts and make an objective determination that there's no other explanation other than you intended to do it (or in plain English: Bull. Shit.).
The implications for the banksters during the last credit bubble and the fraud that accompanied it shows plainly that, while there is a bounty of wrongdoing, evidence and culpable characters, the only explanation for no one being held accountable is that...goddamn it, I sound like a Zerohedge conspiracy-theorist-article-commentor...Wall Street owns Washington, at least to the point that it more resembles Tombstone, Arizona (circa late 19th century) than it does ...I can't think of a good counter-example.  In short, lawlessness is running amok on Wall Street.  Please read Matt Taibbi's most recent article! 

Be careful with ETF's

I'm not sure what, but something is causing ZSL not to function as it was intended (e.g., as a leveraged inverse ETF, it should be up when the underlying is down; Thursday and Friday the correlation was off badly).  I exited this position on Thursday.  Sold ZSL @ 22.28 for a 25% gain.  I jumped back in the SLV Oct. Put @ 23 this time, and paid .78 per K.  It is still my view that as tightening takes place globally, and even in the U.S. with the end of QE2 (and QE Lite?), commodities and emerging markets are going to suffer, especially the biggest bubbles like silver.  Threats to this outlook include a lack of CB tightening, improving economic conditions, and a loss of confidence in cash or banks (this last one refers to the Euro crisis; I would expect gold to benefit, but its possible other PM's could as well).
The PSFI index again takes into account the unrealized loss on the STD put I'm holding.

I saw it this morning

Bought ZSL on margin (Double short silver ETF) @ 19.80
I'm so impatient.  I should take some time off of everything to become a Zen master before I start trading again.  But I won't.

Every. Single. Time.

You'd think I would let good judgment prevail over greed at least once.  Just once!  But again, I shortchanged myself.  Up as much as 200%+, I had to settle for a 50% gain.  Not bad, but the loss of that 150% stings.
Sold SLV Oct. '11 Put @ .56
The PSFI index reflects the gains here, but also the unrealized loss on the STD puts.
I thought the unwind would last a little longer, and frankly, I think it will have another downturn after QE2 ends, but we'll see.  Maybe I'll ride the wave down and buy some physical when QE3 rumors start?  Any way you look at it though, this has bubble/potential bubble written all over it.

So what now?  I'm still holding my STD puts because I think that's just a matter of time...I'm willing to gamble a little more.  Leverage in equities is nearing an all-time high, but net longs are at the lowest level in a while...still, things seem a little more fragile than they did a few months ago.  Maybe we have another 5% rise in the S&P, but over the next month or two, I would think we would see a real correction.  We'll see how the economic data turns out.

My "areas of opportunity" remain 1) patience, 2) common sense, or the application of it, and 3) waiting for better spots/stop gambling so much.

We Got 'em!

Silver is ridiculous

Unless there's a collapse in the dollar, of course.  I'm betting against it.
SLV Oct 22 '11 $24 Put @ .32

Is the tide turning?

Bulls are starting to whine like bears have the last couple years (everyone/daytraders/SOMEONE!!! is just looking for a reason to keep buying/selling).  I heard Barton Biggs whining on Bloomberg today about how the S&P negative outlook on the U.S. credit rating is just an arbitrary reason to sell; he couldn't see any other reason for a selloff today.  How about multiple and continuing GDP downgrades?  How about the Finnish elections and the imminent Greek debt restructuring?  Or the Spanish insistence that it's not Portugal (which wasn't Ireland (which wasn't Greece (which didn't need a bailout!))) as its bills are hardly placed today, and its bond yields and CDS are rising fast?  And Italy isn't far behind!
Well, we'll see how it goes. 
Ah, and something else to keep an eye on - Beijing real estate prices are down something like 25%YoY, I think .  Bubble popping?  May be a good time to start looking at ways to ride the wave down...

Bravo, Iceland

Congratulations on refusing a compulsory obligation to pay someone else's debts.  The Icesave deal would have compensated the British and Dutch governments for losses their depositor-citizens sustained while chasing yield in horribly-run banks.  Private losses should be sustained privately, not piled on to someone else when something doesn't go your way.

Why is the market so sanguine about a Portuguese bailout?

I want to see what the market sees; I need to know why "everything's going to be ok."  What am I missing?
Portugal's 10-year stands at 8.58 after surging from 7.3 only a couple weeks ago; 6-month bills are at 6.5% and CDS are still at their highest level, i.e., its locked out of the market; Portugal was said to have about €4 billion cash, plus about €1 billion more from selling 6 and 12 month bills at rates higher than 10 yr. bunds; Portugal has bond redemptions and coupon payments totalling €5.3 billion this month, plus its normal monthly fiscal deficit.  1) Where is the money coming from to get through April? 
Ok, assume April's bonds and deficit are paid for, and Portugal has enough cash on hand to cover its fiscal deficits from here to June.  The only way to get though June's bond redemptions and coupon payments, totalling €7 billion, is with a bailout.  The various "donors" still have to assess the situation, and if Ireland is a guide, the terms that would be given wouldn't be issued until the end of May.  But given to who? 2) The "lame duck" parliament in Portugal does not have the legal authority to accept any bailout terms.
So that leaves everyone waiting until after June 5.  For fun, lets assume that a government is able to be formed within a day of the election.  That leaves 9 days with which to accept an austerity package.  Consider the recent election losses by CDU in Germany and next week's Finnish elections in assessing the contents of a package;  an austerity package already rejected in March is being labeled merely as a starting point in the budget reforms Portugal needs to enact to get bailout funds, with the Finnish Finance Minister stating, “The package must be really strict because otherwise it doesn’t make any sense...The package must be harder and more comprehensive than the one the parliament voted against.”  3) Is it reasonable to expect the new parliament to negotiate, debate and implement a controversial austerity package in less than 9 days, let alone at all?
That leads to my last question: 4) Could there be any funding of Portugal without strings attached through June?  This begs the question, by whom?  ECB?  That may be a way of providing liquidity while raising rates (not sure about the mechanics of that one).  China?  They play realpolitik, so the question is, in exchange for what? 

To recap, in order to justify the market's "they'll take care of it" view:
1) Portugal must have enough to cover this month's bond redemptions and coupon payments, as well as enough to cover fiscal deficits through June.
2) The June 5 elections take place and a government is formed quickly.
3) The new parliament is willing to implement an austerity plan stricter than one already rejected, with little debate or negotiation.