Sold SCO on 1/27 at 10.73 - Loss, including margin, of 15%
Trade 4 1/28
SCO at 10.6, sold at 10.33 - Loss, including margin, of 6%
Trade 5
SCO at 10.65
I'm buying high and selling low for a reason (its an inverse ETF, so technically, I'm shorting low and covering high). For trade 3, the buying was relentless, and not knowing where it might stop, I got out, tried to get back in on trade 4, but the lemming herd kept moving in the same direction. The decision to get back in is, in addition to Mubarak resignation rumors, the U.S. is finanlly hinting that Mubarak should go, which means his departure is all but a done deal (there are scenarios where he might stay, e.g., the protests die down). Overall, commoditites are surging at the moment, which gives me pause, but there is such a glut of oil, and Saudi Arabia has already made commitments to increase production to get oil back around $70-$80/bbl. Now, they said the same thing in 2008 - and followed up their words with production increases - but the wave of liquidity chasing assets kept driving up prices. It will do so again, but I think that's a story for the late spring / summer. Right now, I still anticipate a correction - Irish elections, bank runs (in whatever form in whatever country), emerging market inflation/tightening/rioting/Pakistan, quickly rising U.S. bond yields, game of chicken with U.S. debt ceiling, U.S. state/municipal defaults (or vigilante action), etc, etc. Alot of risk juxtaposed on a background of cyclical recovery.
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