Iran

3/3/11 Update:  Those 2 warships just passed the Suez on their way back to Iran...

In pondering Iran's strategy, it occurred to me over the last few days that the 2 Iranian warships heading to Syria are bait; Iran wants Israel to attack them.  Iran could then open a front on land through its proxies in Syria and Hezbollah.  If Israel attacks now, the overall conflict would be smaller, but Iran would galvanize its population against their hated arch-nemesis, at a time when Iran is weak domestically.  If Israel doesn't attack (which I would bet on - their best play to is hope the Iranian regime collapses from within), Iran will gradually increase their naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean; that will mean a conflict is inevitable, where Iran would attack through Syria and Hezbollah with naval support from its ships in Syrian ports (after Israel made a first-strike).
Geo-political events are extremely important in investing and trading, even though they don't always get the attention they deserve.  Even if nothing happens with the PIIGS in the immediate future, I think there are enough possibilities where oil-rich countries fall into chaos to keep the "risk-off" trade going for a while (don't ask me to define "a while").