This week

Libya is a mess, but it's priced in to the markets.  Qaddafi is going to be killed or will flee the country, and Libya will require international assistance.  The only question is whether that assistance will begin by covert methods of speeding the removal of Qaddafi, or after the people/protesters/etc. declare victory and formally request it.  The protests in Iran and Algeria don't seem to be amounting to anything, but they do in Yemen and Bahrain (which is geopolitically more important than Libya).  The only other geopolitical disturbance has been N. Korea threatening to attack the South if they don't stop sending balloons filled with leaflets.  Yawn.

Ireland's election results are not likely to materially change the terms of the bailout (unless the ECB flatly refuses any changes, forcing Ireland's new PM to talk about haircuts so as not to look weak; not my base-case scenario, though).  My base-case is that superficial terms will be "renegotiated" / changed, e.g., some bonds will have their interest rates reduced.
Portugal looks ripe for a bailout, having to redeem bills and bonds in excess of €9 billion over the next 2 months.  They are supposed to auction bills on Wednesday to cover a buyback, but we'll see if they're able to pull it off.  Without another large ECB intervention buying up their bonds, they will be forced to accept a bailout (very politically unpopular...will it be accepted?).  The longer Portugal delays, the higher the risk that contagion spreads to Spain, which is a can that can't be kicked down the road.  There's supposed to be a "plan" set in place by euro leaders this month.  A statement will likely be issued that 'all members agree on reducing deficits, etc., etc,' but in reality, Germany's guarantee of further bailouts requires more changes from the peripheral countries than they are willing to accept.  And its still uncertain what the recent elections in Hamburg mean for future German bailouts, despite Merkel's rhetoric. 

One more interesting note is, seen in light of falling home prices and lower than forecast Q4 GDP, the bond and forex market is already starting to price in QE3.  I think that, given the political shift in Congress, another round won't happen (then again, I have mistaken what should be done for what will be done before), and it will be a good trade to bet against when it hits its zenith.