On Tilt

Sold EDZ @ 21.83 - Total Loss -4.5%
This trade didn't work out as I thought it might.  I don't like to hold on to a leveraged or inverse ETF for too long because decay can eat away what would otherwise be a profitable trade.  I'm soon going to start looking at opening a futures account so I don't have to worry about this problem.  A futures account would also give me more options to trade with.

I made a rash decision today, one that I'm going to likely be angry at myself tomorrow for.  The long-oil trade is so damn trendy right now, I wanted to speculate against it.  Gambling again, I know, at what looks like poor timing, but its not entirely misconceived.  If an "event" doesn't happen, oil will likely continue higher.  If one does, oil will reverse faster than it ascended.  What "event" might that be?  Arab League imposes a no-fly zone over Libya (with what will certainly be undeclared U.S. assistance); Qaddafi declares a cease-fire to negotiate (he's on his way out - the easy way or the hard way - but a cease-fire would make the transition smooth/er); protests, etc. will likely remain, but as long as a lid is kept on it....Another possible event is a substantially stronger-than-expected jobs report on Friday.  With the FOMC Meeting only 2 weeks away, how sure is everyone that the Fed won't pull QE2 early, or at least hint at the possibility, or mention interest rates, or mention rising commodity prices?  Last, and probably least, a blowout in PIIGS bond yields, etc.  I'll be keeping a tigher leash on this trade than normal.  Bought SCO on margin at $44.79 (roughly equivalent to shorting WTI at a little over $102).