If you can't beat 'em...

...join 'em.  Sold SCO at 41.97.  Total loss -14%.  Bought UCO at 57.39, which probably means oil is set to drop.  My analysis hasn't been the problem lately, its my instincts.  If this ends up being a loser, I'm going to pause for a while, maybe come back in a month or two after I've found my problem.
Now, there are reasons crude could fall soon and fast, so I may flip-flop again.  1) Stabilization in Libya (discussed below); 2) ETF rebalancing / futures expiration; 3) Other (monetary policy tightening; PIIGS).


Obama...is it cowardice or stupidity that prevents him from taking action in Libya?  It seems Hillary has bigger balls.  He wants to "think" about it, as a deer thinks about what to do when presented with the bright lights of a Mack truck.  It certainly has nothing to do with strategy; the proper strategy would have been to assist the rebels (see my last post for details).  Unless he wants to wait for the U.N., which is another way of saying he's waiting for China and Russia's approval before acting in an area that has nothing to do with either of those countries.

• The goals are clear:
• realpolitik (prevent contagion, get the oil fields back online), and
• humanitarian (prevent the possibility of a Qaddafi victory, which would end in slaughter, and help millions who want freedom to get it). 
• The risks in using air power and SF are minimal:
• Gates is using Obama's words like Colin Powell used Bush's to sell the U.N. on Iraq.  In other words, he's full of crap.  Ya, I said it.  The U.S. overran the Libyan (Soviet) air defenses in the '80s; Libya hasn't upgraded since, making the U.S. at least 2 generations ahead of their technology.  What kind of incompetence would be necessary to lose even 1 aircraft? 
• Muslim backlash for invading another muslim country?  Give me a break.  The rebels are begging for a no-fly zone.
• The risks in "thinking about it" or "waiting for Russia and China's approval" are huge, not just geo-strategically, or economically, but politically for Obama:
• Contagion, contagion, contagion.
• Libya / MENA unrest keeps oil at elevated levels, which will push the U.S., and the world, back into recession.  The timing, of course, will be in an election year.  If the economy deteriorates in 2012, Obama will be a 1 term president (unless the Republicans nominate a scholar like Sarah Palin).  If oil remains elevated throughout the year because of Obama's inaction, he will be blamed for pushing us back in to recession.