I want to quickly mention the need to distinguish between what should happen, and what will happen. On March 4, I laid out a prediction of how the events in Libya would unfold. I was wrong. I underestimated the degree to which this administration wants the approval of the rest of the world before acting in the United States' best interest. Now, even if all goes according to Obama's plan - and it very well might - he took a huge risk in betting 1) he could get China and Russia to abstain at the UN SC, and 2) Qaddafi would not be able to complete his reconquest before the UN resolution and present the world with a fait accompli.
My eyes were only looking to what I thought should happen, not what I thought they thought should happen. Lesson learned.
As for oil prices and the cease-fire...I'm not sure if Qaddafi is stupid enough to try and make a move that would break his declared cease-fire. If it were 30 years ago, where observation of the situation was limited, maybe. But he has to know we have satellites and spy planes, and likely SF on the ground, or at least contacts with rebels. If the cease-fire had to be enforced, I think it would devastate Qaddafi's forces, and I think he knows it. I also think there is too much talking going on by the US, France, etc. I've heard too many times that we're ready to strike within hours of something being decided; it almost seems like we're afraid to do it. Get busy reuniting under a new government, or get busy bombing. Time is on Gaddafi's side, i.e., the longer he stays in power, the more likely it will be that he remains.
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