There seems to be a positive correlation between liquidity and stupidity

Besides many losing trades, another reason not to use this blog for investment advice is that I don't update it as soon as I make a trade.  I am happy to make many small losses in search of large gains.  Admittedly, I haven't had a large gain yet...in fact, I need one just to get back to even.  In the future, I am going to divide my trades so all my eggs aren't in one basket at one time.  Starting next month.  Sold SCO at 42.96, loss of 21%.  By the way, can anyone explain the recent rise in oil from $102 to $106?  Nothing changed in Libya or the Saudi peninsula, yet oil surged as if there was a massive increase in demand, or a massive decrease in supply, hence the title of this blog.
As you can see from my next trade, I have no confidence in Europe's ability to manage their solvency crises. 
Bought STD Sep 17 '11 $10 Put Executed @ $0.7.

القذافي

I was unknowingly incorrectly transliterating his name - it's Al-Qathafi (Qa-THA-fee), where the th is a hard th, like in "there".  For those of you who don't التكلم اللغة العربي , Al-Qathafi is Arabic for...the Qathafi.  I miss you, Chris Farley.

Risking victory for appearances...thanks Obama, way to earn that Nobel Peace Prize

Mig-23's are already falling from the sky.  I imagine the French are already working on plans to surrender, lol.  I joke.  Go France!, kick some ass. 
Get this: coalition aircraft, including a French carrier, are just now moving to the Mediterranean.  How is this possible?  This is negligence bordering on incompetence on the part of Obama; this should have been done before the UN vote so we could begin to be effective on a moment's notice.  Now it will be days before we can effectively stop the movement of Qadaffi's military, which has already begun to move in to Beghazi and other rebel-held cities.  Good luck getting them out now without ground troops. 
Obama is risking victory to try and accomplish change.  What change?  To not be seen as an imperial power.  Using the U.N., pretending its the French and Arab League who are leading this, is all a bit disingenuous.  Nothing happens without the inclination, approval, and support of the United States.  Period.  We are what we are, and if we weren't, we would have watched videos of thousands of Libyans slaughtered weeks ago.  President Obama risks victory in an attempt to pretend the United States doesn't have an interest in maintaining world peace.  The U.N. can't do it, the Europeans won't do it, even if they could.  If the U.S. didn't dominate the world, the Russians, Iranians, Chinese and others would quickly take the opportunity to increase their regional dominance; the only thing preventing major superstates from developing (a la WWII Germany, Japan, USSR, etc) is the United States maintaining regional balances of power throughout the world.  They are the real imperialists -- restrained only by a more powerful quasi-imperial United States.  Wake up, world.
Well, we'll see where oil opens on Sunday night.  Will Qaddafi solidify control by then?  Will he be pushed back, and if so, will he sabotage his oil wells?  Will he ask for a cease fire again and prove he wants it by pulling his troops back?  Will the coalition attacks (which don't really seem to be coordinated) just start ramping up?  Realistically, nothing will affect world supply and demand, but it will contribute to the $15-$20/barrel speculative premium.  Let's see if get a margin call on Monday...

Should vs. Will

I want to quickly mention the need to distinguish between what should happen, and what will happen.  On March 4, I laid out a prediction of how the events in Libya would unfold.  I was wrong.  I underestimated the degree to which this administration wants the approval of the rest of the world before acting in the United States' best interest.  Now, even if all goes according to Obama's plan - and it very well might - he took a huge risk in betting 1) he could get China and Russia to abstain at the UN SC, and 2) Qaddafi would not be able to complete his reconquest before the UN resolution and present the world with a fait accompli. 
My eyes were only looking to what I thought should happen, not what I thought they thought should happen.  Lesson learned.
As for oil prices and the cease-fire...I'm not sure if Qaddafi is stupid enough to try and make a move that would break his declared cease-fire.  If it were 30 years ago, where observation of the situation was limited, maybe.  But he has to know we have satellites and spy planes, and likely SF on the ground, or at least contacts with rebels.  If the cease-fire had to be enforced, I think it would devastate Qaddafi's forces, and I think he knows it.  I also think there is too much talking going on by the US, France, etc.  I've heard too many times that we're ready to strike within hours of something being decided; it almost seems like we're afraid to do it.  Get busy reuniting under a new government, or get busy bombing.  Time is on Gaddafi's side, i.e., the longer he stays in power, the more likely it will be that he remains.

Not a bad day

A 20% return in 1 day?  I'll take it.  Sold EWV at 42.83.
And as things in the ME/NA seem to be winding down, shorting oil seems to be a good move, especially with Japan likely to use far less for a while.  Bought SCO at 47.97 (short WTI ~ $98.40/barrel).

Who am I kidding?

I lied.  I can't let this one pass by.  Bought EWV (short Japan) at 39.

Time-Out

I exited my last trade shortly after I entered.  I've figured out why my trading has been so schizophrenic.  Trading requires good chipstack management from a disinterested practitioner; right now I am distracted to the point that I am unable to exercise good judgment.  I'm going to empty my trading account into a risk free investment: paying down debt.  At the same time, I'm going to slowly rebuild a new account and focus on new tools so that when I return, I don't have to worry about ETF decay.  I do enjoy writing, so from time to time I may be back. 
Its interesting to note that the correction I was waiting for finally appears to be materializing...

If you can't beat 'em...

...join 'em.  Sold SCO at 41.97.  Total loss -14%.  Bought UCO at 57.39, which probably means oil is set to drop.  My analysis hasn't been the problem lately, its my instincts.  If this ends up being a loser, I'm going to pause for a while, maybe come back in a month or two after I've found my problem.
Now, there are reasons crude could fall soon and fast, so I may flip-flop again.  1) Stabilization in Libya (discussed below); 2) ETF rebalancing / futures expiration; 3) Other (monetary policy tightening; PIIGS).

Performance does speak for itself: I fucked up.  I thought early today about doing a 180, which would have been a good move.  But the more I think about it, the less I see a reason for oil to continue higher.  First, ME/NA isn't yet as bad as everyone's worst fears.  There are some protests in Algeria and Saudi Arabia, but the situation there is well under control.  Bahrain's protesters, while strong in force and likely to get some of their goals accomplished, have lost momentum.  As for Libya, that should be wrapped up in a week (assuming Obama doesn't lose his nerve).  The U.S. has a light carrier (Kearsarge) and a heavy carrier (Enterprise) already within striking distance, and both will be parked on the shores of Libya by the end of the weekend.  That's in addition to European and S. Korean warships already in the area.  You can guarantee there are already special forces on the ground advising the rebels, at least around Benghazi.  They will be following the game plan the U.S. used to run the Taliban over in Afghanistan in 2001: ground capture done by indigenous forces, while SF advisors guide local forces as well as bombs from above.  Damage done to the oil fields will remain minimal, if anything at all, and foreign workers will be back within a few weeks to get the pumps going again.
Second, the jobs picture is improving, and commodity and precious metal prices are at ridiculous levels; the FOMC meeting has to take that into account.  Then again, I didn't think they'd be stupid enough to do QE2, and, well...actually, maybe I should close my trading account and just load up on silver.  If there is a QE3, I will be buying silver, bullets, MREs, and maybe a cave somewhere, lol.

On Tilt

Sold EDZ @ 21.83 - Total Loss -4.5%
This trade didn't work out as I thought it might.  I don't like to hold on to a leveraged or inverse ETF for too long because decay can eat away what would otherwise be a profitable trade.  I'm soon going to start looking at opening a futures account so I don't have to worry about this problem.  A futures account would also give me more options to trade with.

I made a rash decision today, one that I'm going to likely be angry at myself tomorrow for.  The long-oil trade is so damn trendy right now, I wanted to speculate against it.  Gambling again, I know, at what looks like poor timing, but its not entirely misconceived.  If an "event" doesn't happen, oil will likely continue higher.  If one does, oil will reverse faster than it ascended.  What "event" might that be?  Arab League imposes a no-fly zone over Libya (with what will certainly be undeclared U.S. assistance); Qaddafi declares a cease-fire to negotiate (he's on his way out - the easy way or the hard way - but a cease-fire would make the transition smooth/er); protests, etc. will likely remain, but as long as a lid is kept on it....Another possible event is a substantially stronger-than-expected jobs report on Friday.  With the FOMC Meeting only 2 weeks away, how sure is everyone that the Fed won't pull QE2 early, or at least hint at the possibility, or mention interest rates, or mention rising commodity prices?  Last, and probably least, a blowout in PIIGS bond yields, etc.  I'll be keeping a tigher leash on this trade than normal.  Bought SCO on margin at $44.79 (roughly equivalent to shorting WTI at a little over $102).