Lots of leverage on AUD/USD short after this mornings NFP came better than expected: June '14 @ .9212. I wanted to do it before the data came out, but uncharacteristic of me, I waited for the data...bad move.
And bad move to get in so quick. The market is not reacting as I thought it would and I don't quite know why...buy the rumor sell the news? Only a one-off data point and not a trend? Won't change Fed's timetable? All of the above? I feel like I'm totally missing something though...
So the Yen is stronger across the board and the dollar is weaker across the board. I'd like to figure out why. I hope to this weekend. As of now, I will maintain half the position because I think 1) China data will continue to weaken over the short and medium term; 2) RBA will not feed the hawks (unfortunately for Aussie mfg., I'm not sure they're ready to feed the doves either). I will watch data closely next week and reevaluate.
Russia likely to intervene/invade (depending if your Russian or Western) in Eastern Ukraine in the next couple weeks. Not sure if/how this will affect AUD/USD...risk off, sure, but how much will depend on how bellicose the rhetoric is surrounding the West's reaction and Russia's counterreaction.
Biggest data points next week for AUD/USD:
Monday - 9 am CST - US ISM
- 830 pm CST - balance of trade, imports/exports
Tuesday - 730 am CST - US balance of trade
- 830 pm CST - retail sales
- 845 pm CST - Chinese HSBC non-mfg
Wednesday - 830 pm CST - Employment change
- 9 pm CST - Chinese balance of trade, imports/exports
Thursday - 830 pm CST -
1) RBA Monetary Policy Statement
2) Chinese inflation data
UPDATE: Cut losses. Too much leverage and not enough patience. Loss slightly over 60%. Taking the remainder (still up a bit for the year) and investing in to law practice. But I'll be back with more patience and more perspective.
And bad move to get in so quick. The market is not reacting as I thought it would and I don't quite know why...buy the rumor sell the news? Only a one-off data point and not a trend? Won't change Fed's timetable? All of the above? I feel like I'm totally missing something though...
So the Yen is stronger across the board and the dollar is weaker across the board. I'd like to figure out why. I hope to this weekend. As of now, I will maintain half the position because I think 1) China data will continue to weaken over the short and medium term; 2) RBA will not feed the hawks (unfortunately for Aussie mfg., I'm not sure they're ready to feed the doves either). I will watch data closely next week and reevaluate.
Russia likely to intervene/invade (depending if your Russian or Western) in Eastern Ukraine in the next couple weeks. Not sure if/how this will affect AUD/USD...risk off, sure, but how much will depend on how bellicose the rhetoric is surrounding the West's reaction and Russia's counterreaction.
Biggest data points next week for AUD/USD:
Monday - 9 am CST - US ISM
- 830 pm CST - balance of trade, imports/exports
Tuesday - 730 am CST - US balance of trade
- 830 pm CST - retail sales
- 845 pm CST - Chinese HSBC non-mfg
Wednesday - 830 pm CST - Employment change
- 9 pm CST - Chinese balance of trade, imports/exports
Thursday - 830 pm CST -
1) RBA Monetary Policy Statement
2) Chinese inflation data
UPDATE: Cut losses. Too much leverage and not enough patience. Loss slightly over 60%. Taking the remainder (still up a bit for the year) and investing in to law practice. But I'll be back with more patience and more perspective.
