Thursday, June 28, 2012

Closed EUR/USD Position

They've got to do something in this weekend's (probably will turn in to an all-weekender) EU Summit, right?  At least steps towards Euro-wide banking supervision, maybe hints of German willingness to give the ESM a banking license.  What we won't see is Eurobonds/bills (German opposition) or budget rule enforcement (France, et al love to use other peoples' money), etc.  So for now, I've closed my EUR/USD position.  I may reenter it or another upon news, but for now, I'm taking the anticipation-of-EU-Summit-failure profit and moving aside.

Closed M6E short at 1.2437, gain of 26%.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Update on Trading Activity

...been AWOL studying for Bar Exam.  Entered short EUR/USD at 1.2465 (ouch at current levels) a couple days ago.  Depending on the polls, SYRIZA looks set to win, even though the market looks priced to a ND win but unsure as to whether/what a coalition would look like under ND. 
The last Public Issue poll in Greece shows SYRIZA as the likely winner; Public Issue's polls have indicated this for the last 3 weeks.  Other polls, however, show SYRIZA and ND in a statistical dead heat, with ~ 10% of those polled identifying as undecided.  The Public Issue polls adjust their poll figures (where the other polls do not) by asking an additional question, roughly, whether they lean right or left. Those undecided identify themselves 50% as left-leaning and 30% as right leaning.
To me, making the call before the results are in is a gamble, but I think 1) I'm right in the call; and 2) the potential downside to the trade is dwarfed by the potential upside.