Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Let's see where things stand...

If nothing else, I have an unlimited supply of pithy titles...
Silver.  If it was a quick snap-back, I would be unconcerned.  However, I'm worried that: 1) It's rise has been gradual, not impulsive; and 2) correlates highly with gold (greater swings, but pretty closely correlated).  I still think the end of QE2 will see silver lower, but whether I will make alot of money, or any at all, because of the time decay of the options I'm holding.  But, at this point, I'm unwilling to realize a loss at this point.
STD.  Same as silver, its just a question of when.  Did I get in too soon?  In retrospect, yes, but I did it at a time of stress and before key events.  Finland approved money for Portugal today, but its still up to Portugal to pass the austerity measures.  Plus, Greece is again on the verge of default.  We'll see, but again, I'm willing to gamble a little more here.
In the future, I look forward to using the futures market for my bets moreso than I do the equity/options market.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Paper

I'm a law-school student and I wrote a paper this semester on whether recklessness constitutes scienter under § 10(b) of the Exchange Act [securities fraud].  The short answer is that recklessness constitutes scienter because - while it is at best evidence of negligence - it is a strong indication of intent without the evidence to show it.  In other words, we can't prove you subjectively intended to do it; instead, we're going to look at the facts and make an objective determination that there's no other explanation other than you intended to do it (or in plain English: Bull. Shit.).
The implications for the banksters during the last credit bubble and the fraud that accompanied it shows plainly that, while there is a bounty of wrongdoing, evidence and culpable characters, the only explanation for no one being held accountable is that...goddamn it, I sound like a Zerohedge conspiracy-theorist-article-commentor...Wall Street owns Washington, at least to the point that it more resembles Tombstone, Arizona (circa late 19th century) than it does ...I can't think of a good counter-example.  In short, lawlessness is running amok on Wall Street.  Please read Matt Taibbi's most recent article! 

Be careful with ETF's

I'm not sure what, but something is causing ZSL not to function as it was intended (e.g., as a leveraged inverse ETF, it should be up when the underlying is down; Thursday and Friday the correlation was off badly).  I exited this position on Thursday.  Sold ZSL @ 22.28 for a 25% gain.  I jumped back in the SLV Oct. Put @ 23 this time, and paid .78 per K.  It is still my view that as tightening takes place globally, and even in the U.S. with the end of QE2 (and QE Lite?), commodities and emerging markets are going to suffer, especially the biggest bubbles like silver.  Threats to this outlook include a lack of CB tightening, improving economic conditions, and a loss of confidence in cash or banks (this last one refers to the Euro crisis; I would expect gold to benefit, but its possible other PM's could as well).
The PSFI index again takes into account the unrealized loss on the STD put I'm holding.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

I saw it this morning

Bought ZSL on margin (Double short silver ETF) @ 19.80
I'm so impatient.  I should take some time off of everything to become a Zen master before I start trading again.  But I won't.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Every. Single. Time.

You'd think I would let good judgment prevail over greed at least once.  Just once!  But again, I shortchanged myself.  Up as much as 200%+, I had to settle for a 50% gain.  Not bad, but the loss of that 150% stings.
Sold SLV Oct. '11 Put @ .56
The PSFI index reflects the gains here, but also the unrealized loss on the STD puts.
I thought the unwind would last a little longer, and frankly, I think it will have another downturn after QE2 ends, but we'll see.  Maybe I'll ride the wave down and buy some physical when QE3 rumors start?  Any way you look at it though, this has bubble/potential bubble written all over it.

So what now?  I'm still holding my STD puts because I think that's just a matter of time...I'm willing to gamble a little more.  Leverage in equities is nearing an all-time high, but net longs are at the lowest level in a while...still, things seem a little more fragile than they did a few months ago.  Maybe we have another 5% rise in the S&P, but over the next month or two, I would think we would see a real correction.  We'll see how the economic data turns out.

My "areas of opportunity" remain 1) patience, 2) common sense, or the application of it, and 3) waiting for better spots/stop gambling so much.